Thursday, December 11, 2008

The Value of SuperDraft

Well I've said it before, starting an MLS blog with a week to go in the season probably wasn't the best idea in order to keep this daily. It's all quiet in TFC and Team Canada 'land' but you gotta find something to go on. With rumours still flying around who TFC is going to sign this offseason, I started thinking of something we can at least have a guarantee on - new players from the draft.

In our short existence in the league I think all football fans in this city have experienced a steep learning curve on how MLS works and the realities of player movement. In only two years in the league one thing is clear, that is there is not much that can keep a player from moving from MLS to greener pastures. With a limited salary cap and for the most part, half empty stadiums, keeping the best talent here, unless you are the DP, isn't happening. And especially with any prospect of going to Europe, MLS just can't compete.

So with TFC having 3 draft picks in the 2009 SuperDraft I started asking myself exactly what value short and long term does this have for the club? As mentioned above, there must be a real conflict when picking a player - Toronto needs help NOW - so do you want someone who immediately has an impact in the league? If they do, you have a real chance of possibly losing them to European club - Maurice Edu case in point. Edu, in my opinion, was far from a great player for TFC, had his moments but for the most part was not a player I was overly excited about or thought to have had a huge impact on the league (Despite being rookie of the year). Yet after a season and a half, big club with big money comes and he is gone.

Then there are players like Joseph Lapira who go into the draft without any intention of playing in MLS. They would rather play in the Norwegian second division than for TFC. This is something that also must be taken into consideration - do you draft these top players who you hope might not succeed abroad, but develop and gain experience so years later return and immediately have an impact - an investment, though you may never see a return on it. They could be another Rohan Ricketts or Carl Robinson, who have to come here to find themselves again.

A knock on the draft is that when these players are entering the league, in comparison to the rest of the footballing world, they are considerably older yet not as developed skill-wise. Julius James was touted as the top pick in the 2008 draft at one point. At 24 years old he was seen to be lacking many attributes in his rookie year - but this is when many players in the rest of the world have already been playing professionally and should be reaching their prime. As well, the list of players who were touted as the best in NCAA more often than not, can't even hack it in MLS (Xavier Balc!).

You have these different scenarios playing out and can see this isn't like the NHL or NFL where you know more or less what you are getting and that they won't be going anywhere - it's just a matter of their development. You hope to find that diamond in the rough, someone who is good, but not TOO good that they attract the attention from abroad. I see two possibilities that make good sense. First, trade a pick for an established player, so you know what you are getting (win!). Or take the risk on a younger player, if there are sophmores or freshman in the draft, or the odd teenager who you put into the "youth system" (academy?) and can see as a long term investment like Nik Besagno, Abbe Ibrahim and Alditore (ok, he just got too good).



The draft can be great tool for a club as long as you're not banking your immediate success on it. There will be no Crosby, Chris Paul or Ben Roethlisberger. You can find a short term impact player who can make your club some money (and by some, I mean the shitty crumbs left over from the league who takes most of it!) but with the rise of club academies, and players hopefully developing at a younger age this should be where we are getting our new and young talent from, and I don't think the draft but shrewd player moves is where we should be banking our future and success on.

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